Strategic game theory in the making (English 2022-09-29)

There are two events within a very short period of time that have changed the outlook for world peace, and trade. The first one is the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltics. Obviously, the Russians did not blow up their own 200 MEUR pipeline as some “analysts” seem to guess. Anyone who makes such a ludicrous claim is… ludicrous. The culprit is "obvious" (and therefore, we will not mention their name, just as Reuters refuses to when they cite Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol)

For those of you who are looking at culprits in the region, look further! Energy is a global market, and therefore we have to look at suspects residing in the whole world. The obvious culprit is someone who benefits from:

1. No Russian gas to Germany, and no Euros to Russia.
2. Politically secure, but slow, LNG supplies from Qatar to Germany, who needs to buy time
3. Making Sholtz look good, as he quite recently visited the Mid East and negotiated the deal
4. Strategically deconnecting Russia from the EU as the tiny Norwegian pipeline “Baltic Pipe” is connected to Poland, and east Europe pulled closer to the West
5. Give the Russians a casus belli to attack NATO ambitious Sweden, being the host for a bunch of American marines leading drills on Swedish territory, possibly using Sweden as a base for further excursions along Russias strategic areas of interest, draging the whole of Scandinavia into this right mess.

Basically, were looking for someone who can slide a bomb device, weighing about half a ton, of TNT onto the pipelines and then detonating it (without being caught, or reprimanded if caught), which, when you think about it, seems awfully similar to being capable of nuking the whole premise. Well, we all know who that is, thankfully. No need to name names. (I put my two cents on Rambo. No, not a military special commando, but Rambo himself, who actually exists in real life and saved all those Vietcong prisoners in the documentary sequel Rambo 1 to 5.)

The obvious culprit?

 

The second one is a lot less subtle, but nonetheless a tit for tat response, which will drain the Occidents’ ability to conduct massive and prolonged warfare. The London Metal Exchange is discussing sanctioning Russian base metals (Bloomberg). Maybe you forgot, but the LME is owned by China, which implies that any Russian base metals that will not be traded on the LME will find a venue somewhere else, possibly within the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where they will be traded. (Oh, by the way, it seems that NATO member Turkey has just applied. Cray-e-c!) This is really a no brainer, for if you, as an Oriental observer of current European events, will have to reach a conclusion on the underlying logic process that resulted in the explosion, you’d have to conclude that the process is … somewhat opaque, as the Europeans are after all picking a fight with a nuclear power, while having no guns, nor energy! Better then to manage your risks properly, and cut off basic materials to these risk prone guys. Hopefully they will “cool off” (no pun intended, even though we are approaching winter). The beauty of this response, from a game theoretical point of view, is that war mongering politicians will find it quite easy to go along with the proposition, believing the they are sanctioning Russia, when it in fact is the other way around. Marvelous!

Well, it is a telling sign of how the game of geo politics is played. Embargos (by military or judicial force) restrict trade. That’s basically it. Too bad that we just cannot gather and talk.